Medical Training Institute, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia — sample investor model

Computed values from the investor workbook, read-only. The customer receives the live Excel file with every formula.

Medical Training Institute — investor model

Jeddah, Saudi Arabia · All figures in SAR · 10 operating years; year one starts with 4 months of pre-launch before opening (no separate construction period)


INVESTMENT
Hard cost	2,404,650
Contingency	0
Pre-opening	0
Opening working capital	600,000
Interest during construction	0
Financing fees	0
Total project cost	3,004,650
Cost per unit of capacity	12,023
Funded by equity	1,504,650
Funded by debt	1,500,000

RETURNS
Project IRR (unlevered, incl. exit value)	27.3%
Project NPV @ 10.0%	6,264,927
Project IRR without exit value (operations only)	19.4%
Equity IRR	32.0%
Equity NPV @ 13.0%	4,743,012
Project payback (years from opening)	4.9
Peak equity funding	2,579,254
Minimum DSCR	−3.36x	below 1.25x in year 1
LLCR	1.75x
Exit value (EBITDA multiple)	10,958,271
Break-even price (NPV = 0) vs modelled price	−13%

MODEL CHECKS
Balance sheet balances every year	PASS
Cash never negative	CHECK	shortfall 474,604 — open with 1,074,604 of working capital
Debt repaid by maturity	PASS
DSCR at or above 1.25x in every year	CHECK	below 1.25x in year 1

ASSUMPTIONS THE MODEL HAD TO MAKE
• Projection extended to 10 years (a professional study and a lender look at the loan's whole life).
• No capacity plan from the study: sales volume is capped at 1.8× the first year (the healthcare norm for headroom) — replace with the real plant or site capacity.
• Year one: 4 months before opening, then a 8-month ramp-up, so it sells 37% of a full year; staff are paid from a month before opening, fixed charges all year.
• Delivery roles are set to grow with the volume sold, but volume does not grow past the first full year here, so their headcount holds: Senior Clinical Simulation Instructor / Specialist Doctor, High-Fidelity Simulation & AV Biomedical Technician.
• Renewal reserve at the healthcare norm (2% of revenue) funds equipment and furnishing replacement.
• Tax losses carried forward without a time limit (Saudi Arabia rule; continuity or annual-cap conditions not modelled).
• Exit value at 7× final-year EBITDA (healthcare norm); project IRR and NPV include it.

Inputs

Yellow cells are the assumptions the model runs on (values, for reference — edit the study to change them)


Currency	SAR
Construction / setup (months)	0
Operating years	10
Inflation	2.5%
Corporate tax rate	2.5%
Tax losses carried forward (years)	unlimited
Discount rate (project)	10.0%
Cost of equity	13.0%
Exit value method	exit_multiple 7×
Receivable days	30
Payable days	45
Inventory days	30
Opening working capital	600,000
Contingency	0.0%

Loan	Amount / share	Rate	Grace (months)	Tenor (months)	Repayment
Term loan (Commercial Bank (SNB / Al Rajhi Bank) with Kafalah SME Progr)	1,500,000	6.50%	6	60	annuity

Revenue stream	Driver	Price	Price growth	Direct cost %	Pass-through
Specialized High-Fidelity Procedural Simulation Modules	volume	7,500	3.0%	27.0%
Saudi Board OSCE & Practical Exam Preparation Bootcamps	volume	9,500	3.0%	22.0%
Comprehensive Annual Postgraduate Masterclass Fellowships	volume	35,000	3.0%	20.0%
AHA & SCFHS Accredited Life Support Suite (BLS/ACLS/PALS)	volume	1,800	3.0%	30.0%
Corporate Hospital Residency Training & Suite Rental Contracts	volume	25,000	4.0%	15.0%

Revenue by driver

SAR


	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Specialized High-Fidelity Procedural Simulation Modules — units	90	240	240	240	240	240	240	240	240	240
Specialized High-Fidelity Procedural Simulation Modules — revenue	675,000	1,854,000	1,909,620	1,966,909	2,025,916	2,086,693	2,149,294	2,213,773	2,280,186	2,348,592
Saudi Board OSCE & Practical Exam Preparation Bootcamps — units	30	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80
Saudi Board OSCE & Practical Exam Preparation Bootcamps — revenue	285,000	782,800	806,284	830,473	855,387	881,048	907,480	934,704	962,745	991,628
Comprehensive Annual Postgraduate Masterclass Fellowships — units	17	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Comprehensive Annual Postgraduate Masterclass Fellowships — revenue	590,625	1,622,250	1,670,918	1,721,045	1,772,676	1,825,857	1,880,632	1,937,051	1,995,163	2,055,018
AHA & SCFHS Accredited Life Support Suite (BLS/ACLS/PALS) — units	56	150	150	150	150	150	150	150	150	150
AHA & SCFHS Accredited Life Support Suite (BLS/ACLS/PALS) — revenue	101,250	278,100	286,443	295,036	303,887	313,004	322,394	332,066	342,028	352,289
Corporate Hospital Residency Training & Suite Rental Contracts — units	7	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Corporate Hospital Residency Training & Suite Rental Contracts — revenue	187,500	520,000	540,800	562,432	584,929	608,326	632,660	657,966	684,285	711,656
Total revenue	1,839,375	5,057,150	5,214,065	5,375,894	5,542,796	5,714,929	5,892,460	6,075,560	6,264,407	6,459,182

Profit and loss (departmental, USALI-style)

SAR


	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Specialized High-Fidelity Procedural Simulation Modules revenue	675,000	1,854,000	1,909,620	1,966,909	2,025,916	2,086,693	2,149,294	2,213,773	2,280,186	2,348,592
Direct costs	(182,250)	(500,580)	(515,597)	(531,065)	(546,997)	(563,407)	(580,309)	(597,719)	(615,650)	(634,120)
Payroll	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Specialized High-Fidelity Procedural Simulation Modules profit	492,750	1,353,420	1,394,023	1,435,843	1,478,919	1,523,286	1,568,985	1,616,054	1,664,536	1,714,472
Saudi Board OSCE & Practical Exam Preparation Bootcamps revenue	285,000	782,800	806,284	830,473	855,387	881,048	907,480	934,704	962,745	991,628
Direct costs	(62,700)	(172,216)	(177,382)	(182,704)	(188,185)	(193,831)	(199,646)	(205,635)	(211,804)	(218,158)
Payroll	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Saudi Board OSCE & Practical Exam Preparation Bootcamps profit	222,300	610,584	628,902	647,769	667,202	687,218	707,834	729,069	750,941	773,470
Comprehensive Annual Postgraduate Masterclass Fellowships revenue	590,625	1,622,250	1,670,918	1,721,045	1,772,676	1,825,857	1,880,632	1,937,051	1,995,163	2,055,018
Direct costs	(118,125)	(324,450)	(334,184)	(344,209)	(354,535)	(365,171)	(376,126)	(387,410)	(399,033)	(411,004)
Payroll	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Comprehensive Annual Postgraduate Masterclass Fellowships profit	472,500	1,297,800	1,336,734	1,376,836	1,418,141	1,460,685	1,504,506	1,549,641	1,596,130	1,644,014
AHA & SCFHS Accredited Life Support Suite (BLS/ACLS/PALS) revenue	101,250	278,100	286,443	295,036	303,887	313,004	322,394	332,066	342,028	352,289
Direct costs	(30,375)	(83,430)	(85,933)	(88,511)	(91,166)	(93,901)	(96,718)	(99,620)	(102,608)	(105,687)
Payroll	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
AHA & SCFHS Accredited Life Support Suite (BLS/ACLS/PALS) profit	70,875	194,670	200,510	206,525	212,721	219,103	225,676	232,446	239,420	246,602
Corporate Hospital Residency Training & Suite Rental Contracts revenue	187,500	520,000	540,800	562,432	584,929	608,326	632,660	657,966	684,285	711,656
Direct costs	(28,125)	(78,000)	(81,120)	(84,365)	(87,739)	(91,249)	(94,899)	(98,695)	(102,643)	(106,748)
Payroll	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Corporate Hospital Residency Training & Suite Rental Contracts profit	159,375	442,000	459,680	478,067	497,190	517,077	537,761	559,271	581,642	604,908

Total departmental profit	1,417,800	3,898,474	4,019,848	4,145,040	4,274,172	4,407,369	4,544,761	4,686,482	4,832,669	4,983,465
Undistributed payroll	(1,278,225)	(1,746,908)	(1,790,580)	(1,835,345)	(1,881,228)	(1,928,259)	(1,976,465)	(2,025,877)	(2,076,524)	(2,128,437)
Undistributed expenses	(571,598)	(706,512)	(724,175)	(742,279)	(760,836)	(779,857)	(799,353)	(819,337)	(839,821)	(860,816)
Gross operating profit (GOP)	(432,023)	1,445,055	1,505,093	1,567,417	1,632,108	1,699,253	1,768,942	1,841,267	1,916,324	1,994,212
Fixed charges (rent, insurance)	(343,308)	(351,891)	(360,688)	(369,705)	(378,948)	(388,421)	(398,132)	(408,085)	(418,287)	(428,745)
EBITDA	(775,331)	1,093,164	1,144,405	1,197,711	1,253,160	1,310,832	1,370,810	1,433,182	1,498,037	1,565,467
Depreciation and amortisation	(482,385)	(496,834)	(511,732)	(420,091)	(435,928)	(128,726)	(145,562)	(157,665)	(161,115)	(164,672)
EBIT	(1,257,716)	596,329	632,674	777,620	817,232	1,182,106	1,225,248	1,275,517	1,336,922	1,400,795
Interest	(95,537)	(78,997)	(58,480)	(36,589)	(13,231)	0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax	(1,353,253)	517,332	574,194	741,031	804,001	1,182,106	1,225,248	1,275,517	1,336,922	1,400,795
Tax (after loss carry-forward)	0	0	0	(11,983)	(20,100)	(29,553)	(30,631)	(31,888)	(33,423)	(35,020)
Net income	(1,353,253)	517,332	574,194	729,049	783,901	1,152,553	1,194,617	1,243,629	1,303,499	1,365,775

GOP margin (own revenue)	−23.5%	28.6%	28.9%	29.2%	29.4%	29.7%	30.0%	30.3%	30.6%	30.9%
EBITDA margin (own revenue)	−42.1%	21.6%	21.9%	22.3%	22.6%	22.9%	23.3%	23.6%	23.9%	24.2%
Replacement reserve (cash, not P&L)	36,787	101,143	104,281	107,518	110,856	114,299	117,849	121,511	125,288	129,184

Cash flow (indirect method, from net income)

SAR


	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Net income	(1,353,253)	517,332	574,194	729,049	783,901	1,152,553	1,194,617	1,243,629	1,303,499	1,365,775
Add back depreciation (once)	482,385	496,834	511,732	420,091	435,928	128,726	145,562	157,665	161,115	164,672
Increase in working capital	(21,060)	(216,492)	(8,174)	(8,451)	(8,738)	(9,036)	(9,341)	(9,658)	(9,985)	(10,324)
Cash from operations	(891,927)	797,675	1,077,751	1,140,688	1,211,090	1,272,244	1,330,838	1,391,636	1,454,628	1,520,124
Replacement / maintenance capex	(36,787)	(101,143)	(104,281)	(107,518)	(110,856)	(114,299)	(117,849)	(121,511)	(125,288)	(129,184)
Loan principal repaid	(145,889)	(306,355)	(326,872)	(348,763)	(372,121)	0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash	(1,074,604)	390,177	646,598	684,407	728,114	1,157,946	1,212,988	1,270,125	1,329,340	1,390,940
Closing cash	(474,604)	(84,427)	562,171	1,246,578	1,974,692	3,132,638	4,345,626	5,615,751	6,945,091	8,336,031

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)	(833,178)	775,529	1,031,950	1,063,019	1,113,135	1,157,946	1,212,989	1,270,125	1,329,340	1,390,940
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE)	(1,074,604)	390,177	646,598	684,407	728,114	1,157,946	1,212,989	1,270,125	1,329,340	1,390,940

Balance sheet (end of year)

SAR — cash comes from the cash flow, never a plug


	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Cash	(474,604)	(84,427)	562,171	1,246,578	1,974,692	3,132,638	4,345,626	5,615,751	6,945,091	8,336,031
Receivables	151,182	415,656	428,553	441,854	455,572	469,720	484,312	499,361	514,883	530,892
Inventory	34,650	95,234	98,155	101,166	104,270	107,471	110,770	114,171	117,677	121,292
Net fixed assets	1,959,052	1,563,361	1,155,910	843,337	518,265	503,837	476,124	439,970	404,144	368,655
Total assets	1,670,280	1,989,824	2,244,789	2,632,935	3,052,799	4,213,666	5,416,832	6,669,253	7,981,795	9,356,870

Payables	164,772	273,338	280,982	288,843	296,927	305,240	313,790	322,582	331,625	340,925
Loans	1,354,111	1,047,756	720,884	372,121	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total liabilities	1,518,882	1,321,094	1,001,866	660,964	296,927	305,240	313,790	322,582	331,625	340,925
Equity (paid-in + retained)	151,397	668,730	1,242,923	1,971,972	2,755,872	3,908,425	5,103,042	6,346,671	7,650,170	9,015,945
Total liabilities and equity	1,670,279	1,989,824	2,244,789	2,632,936	3,052,799	4,213,665	5,416,832	6,669,253	7,981,795	9,356,870
CHECK: assets − liabilities − equity (must be 0)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Investment and depreciation

SAR


Asset	Class	Cost	Life (years)
High-Fidelity Human Patient Simulators (SimMan 3G Plus & SimBaby)	other	560,000	5
VR/AR Surgical & Procedural Simulators (Mentice VIST / Endovascular)	other	292,000	5
Specialized Task Trainers & Procedural Kits Package	other	125,000	5
Clinical ICU Devices & Simulation Bay Infrastructure Setup	building	190,000	5
SimCapture AV Recording, Debriefing & Enterprise IT Infrastructure	building	321,000	3
Acoustic Partitioning, Healthcare Vinyl & Specialized Fit-Out Works	technology	466,000	10
Facility Ergonomic Furniture, Signage & Control Room Fittings	fitout	80,000	5
Pre-Launch Licensing, SCFHS Accreditation & Compliance Setup	other	167,250	5
CAPEX Reserve Contingency (10%)	other	203,400	5
Hard cost		2,404,650

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Depreciation	482,385	496,834	511,732	420,091	435,928	128,726	145,562	157,665	161,115	164,672
Replacement / reserve capex	36,787	101,143	104,281	107,518	110,856	114,299	117,849	121,511	125,288	129,184

Debt schedule and cover

SAR


Term loan (Commercial Bank (SNB / Al Rajhi Bank) with Kafalah SME Progr) — drawn 1,500,000, capitalised interest 0, 6.50%, grace 6m, tenor 60m, annuity
	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Opening balance	1,500,000	1,354,111	1,047,756	720,884	372,121	0	0	0	0	0
Principal repaid	(145,889)	(306,355)	(326,872)	(348,763)	(372,121)	0	0	0	0	0
Closing balance	1,354,111	1,047,756	720,884	372,121	0	0	0	0	0	0
Interest	95,537	78,997	58,480	36,589	13,231	0	0	0	0	0

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
DSCR (CFADS ÷ debt service)	−3.36x	2.57x	2.70x	2.80x	2.91x
LLCR at opening: 1.75x · minimum DSCR: -3.36x · average DSCR: 1.52x

Working capital

SAR · receivable 30 days, payable 45 days, inventory 30 days


	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Receivables	151,182	415,656	428,553	441,854	455,572	469,720	484,312	499,361	514,883	530,892
Inventory	34,650	95,234	98,155	101,166	104,270	107,471	110,770	114,171	117,677	121,292
Payables	(164,772)	(273,338)	(280,982)	(288,843)	(296,927)	(305,240)	(313,790)	(322,582)	(331,625)	(340,925)
Net working capital	21,060	237,552	245,726	254,177	262,915	271,951	281,292	290,950	300,935	311,259

Returns, scenarios and sensitivity

SAR · IRR on undiscounted cash flows; NPV at the stated rates


	Investment (t=0)	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Project cash flow (incl. exit value)	(3,004,650)	(833,178)	775,529	1,031,950	1,063,019	1,113,135	1,157,946	1,212,989	1,270,125	1,329,340	12,349,211
Equity cash flow (incl. equity exit value)	(1,504,650)	(1,074,604)	390,177	646,598	684,407	728,114	1,157,946	1,212,989	1,270,125	1,329,340	12,349,211

Project IRR	27.3%
Project NPV @ 10.0% (first flow at t=0)	6,264,927
Equity IRR	32.0%
Equity NPV @ 13.0%	4,743,012

Scenario	Project IRR	Project NPV	Equity IRR	Equity NPV	Min DSCR	Peak equity
downside	0.2%	(2,426,410)	−0.8%	(2,602,380)	−4.33x	4,487,633
base	27.3%	6,264,927	32.0%	4,743,012	−3.36x	2,579,254
upside	37.1%	10,631,206	45.6%	8,383,840	−2.69x	2,309,965
Downside: price -10%, utilisation -10%, volume -10%, capex +15%, opex +5%, loan rate +2pts. Upside: price +5%, utilisation +5%, volume +5%, capex -5%.

Driver (±10%)	Project NPV at −10%	Project NPV at +10%	Swing
price	1,584,921	10,940,197	9,355,276
volume	2,674,984	9,852,151	7,177,167
payroll	7,924,600	4,604,480	3,320,120
cogs	7,353,070	5,176,359	2,176,711
opex	7,269,734	5,259,647	2,010,087
capex	6,501,272	6,028,387	472,885
utilisation	6,264,927	6,264,927	0