Most financial analysis works in one direction: you input assumptions and observe the results. Goal Seek flips this entirely — you specify the result you want, and the tool calculates what inputs are required to achieve it.
This reversal is surprisingly powerful. Instead of asking "What happens if my hotel runs at 65% occupancy?" you ask "What occupancy do I need for a 15% IRR?" Instead of guessing a price point and checking the margin, you ask "What price gives me a $200,000 NPV?"
Goal Seek transforms feasibility analysis from an exercise in observation into a tool for target-setting.
How Goal Seek Works
The concept is simple. Every financial model has inputs (assumptions) and outputs (results). Normal analysis adjusts inputs and reads outputs. Goal Seek sets the output to a desired value and solves backwards for the input.
Standard Analysis Flow:Input (65% occupancy) → Model → Output (IRR = 12.3%)
Goal Seek Flow:Target Output (IRR = 15%) → Model → Required Input (occupancy = 71.2%)
Behind the scenes, Goal Seek uses iterative calculation — testing thousands of input values until it finds the one that produces the target output within an acceptable tolerance. This happens in milliseconds on modern tools.
Practical Goal Seek Examples
Example 1: Hotel Development
You're evaluating a 100-room hotel with a total investment of $18 million. The financial model projects a 12% IRR at 68% occupancy and $195 ADR. Your investors require a 15% minimum IRR.
Goal Seek questions:- "What occupancy for 15% IRR?" → 74% (at current ADR)
- "What ADR for 15% IRR?" → $218 (at current occupancy)
- "What maximum construction cost for 15% IRR?" → $16.2 million
Now you have concrete targets. Either achieve 74% occupancy (is that realistic given the competitive set?), push ADR to $218 (is the market willing to pay that?), or reduce construction cost to $16.2 million (can the design be value-engineered?). These are actionable decisions, not abstract projections.
Example 2: Restaurant
Your restaurant feasibility study shows a 4.5-year payback period. You want to recover your investment within 3 years.
Goal Seek questions:- "What daily covers for 3-year payback?" → 115 (vs current 95 projection)
- "What average ticket for 3-year payback?" → $52 (vs current $45)
- "What maximum fit-out cost for 3-year payback?" → $185,000 (vs current $240,000 budget)
Each answer points to a specific strategic lever. Can you increase covers by extending opening hours or adding outdoor seating? Can a menu redesign justify a higher average ticket? Can you reduce the fit-out scope to bring costs within the threshold?
Example 3: SaaS Business
Your SaaS feasibility shows a 14-month CAC payback period. Investors want it under 12 months.
Goal Seek questions:- "What monthly churn rate for 12-month payback?" → 3.2% (vs current 4.1%)
- "What ARPU for 12-month payback?" → $62/month (vs current $50)
- "What maximum CAC for 12-month payback?" → $520 (vs current $650)
Example 4: Real Estate Development
Your residential development feasibility shows a 17% development margin. Your minimum threshold is 20%.
Goal Seek questions:- "What sale price per apartment for 20% margin?" → $685,000 (vs current $650,000 projection)
- "What maximum construction cost for 20% margin?" → $3,200/sqm (vs current $3,500/sqm)
- "What minimum units sold at launch for 20% margin?" → 65% pre-sales (for construction finance)
Goal Seek vs What-If Analysis
Goal Seek and What-If analysis are complementary, not competitive:
| What-If Analysis | Goal Seek | |
|---|---|---|
| Direction | Input → Output | Output → Input |
| Question | "What happens if...?" | "What do I need for...?" |
| Purpose | Explore risk and sensitivity | Set targets and thresholds |
| Use Case | Understanding the range of outcomes | Making specific operational decisions |
The most effective feasibility analysis uses both. What-If analysis first, to understand which variables matter most and what the risk landscape looks like. Then Goal Seek, to set specific targets for the variables you can influence.
Strategic Applications
Negotiation Preparation
Before negotiating a lease, use Goal Seek to find your maximum viable rent: "What's the highest monthly rent that keeps NPV positive?" Walk into the negotiation knowing exactly where your walkaway point is.
Investor Pitch Calibration
Use Goal Seek to determine what performance levels your investors require: "What growth rate gives a 25% IRR over 5 years?" This tells you exactly what you need to promise — and deliver.
Pricing Strategy
"What price point maximises NPV given the expected volume-price relationship?" By combining Goal Seek with demand elasticity assumptions, you can find the pricing sweet spot mathematically rather than by intuition.
Capacity Planning
"How many rooms/seats/units do I need for a positive NPV at conservative occupancy?" This directly informs the scale of your investment — build the right size from the start instead of over- or under-investing.
The Bottom Line
Goal Seek converts abstract financial analysis into specific, actionable targets. Every business decision involves trade-offs between variables you can control, and Goal Seek quantifies exactly where those trade-offs lie.
Instead of presenting a single scenario and hoping it works out, you can present investors and lenders with precise performance targets: "We need 71% occupancy at $195 ADR for a 15% IRR. Here's why we believe both are achievable given the competitive set data."
That level of specificity demonstrates analytical rigour and commercial maturity that a single set of projections never can.
SimpleFeasibility includes Goal Seek in every report tier. Specify your target NPV, IRR, payback period, or break-even — and instantly see the exact occupancy, pricing, costs, or growth rate required to achieve it. Try Goal Seek Analysis →Related Articles: